Discover the Rockies vs Orioles Preview and Prediction – Sunday July 27, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on July 27, 2025, both teams are struggling this season, with the Orioles holding a record of 46-58 and the Rockies at a dismal 27-77. The two teams faced off yesterday, and the Orioles managed to secure a win, which should provide them a bit of momentum as they seek to build on their recent success.

In this Interleague matchup, the Orioles are projected to start Tomoyuki Sugano, a right-handed pitcher whose season has seen mixed results. With a Win/Loss record of 7-5 and an ERA of 4.54, Sugano is statistically one of the lower-tier starters, ranking 305th out of roughly 350 pitchers according to advanced stats. However, he faces a Rockies offense that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, which could work in his favor. Sugano’s low strikeout rate of 14.2% may actually align well against a high-strikeout lineup like Colorado’s.

On the other side, Austin Gomber is set to take the mound for the Rockies. Gomber has had a rough year, with a 0-4 record and an ERA of 6.03. His struggles continue, but projections indicate he might have been a bit unlucky, potentially offering a slight glimmer of hope for Colorado. Still, Gomber’s low strikeout and high walk rates are concerning when facing an Orioles lineup that, while ranking 21st in overall offense, possesses average power with a 11th ranking in home runs.

The Game Total is set at a high 10.0 runs, reflecting expectations for offensive output. With the Orioles favored at -205, their implied team total stands at an impressive 5.83 runs. Despite both teams’ poor performances, this matchup could tilt in favor of Baltimore if Sugano can exploit the Rockies’ weaknesses effectively.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Austin Gomber will be at an advantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected batting order who hit from the other side in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mickey Moniak’s true offensive ability to be a .316, implying that he has had some very good luck this year given the .054 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .370 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Hunter Goodman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 92nd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Tomoyuki Sugano didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last GS and put up 1 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Tyler O’Neill has big-time HR ability (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber struggles to strike batters out (18th percentile K%) — great news for O’Neill.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Baltimore Orioles (26.5% K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the most strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.53 Units / 12% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 91 games (+12.02 Units / 11% ROI)
• Tyler O’Neill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.55 Units / 32% ROI)