Texas Rangers
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-110/-110)+160
As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Texas Rangers on June 20, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing this season. The Pirates sit at 30-46, while the Rangers are slightly better at 36-39. This matchup marks the first in the series and follows notable performances for both teams: the Pirates won their last game against the Cincinnati Reds 8-4, while the Rangers fell to the New York Yankees 4-1.
On the mound, the Pirates will send out Michael Burrows, who has had a mixed season thus far, holding a 1-1 record with an ERA of 4.24. The projections suggest that he may be due for a turnaround, given his xFIP of 3.38, indicating he has been unlucky. However, his average projections of 4.6 innings pitched and 2.4 earned runs allowed don’t instill much confidence, especially considering the Pirates’ offense ranks 29th in MLB.
Contrastingly, the Rangers will counter with Jacob deGrom, a pitcher who has consistently performed at an elite level, ranking 12th among starting pitchers. With a stellar 2.19 ERA and a strong strikeout rate, deGrom is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs. If he can manage the Pirates’ weak offense, he should put his team in a strong position to secure a victory.
Given the disparity in pitching talent, the Rangers are seen as the favorites in this matchup, despite their own struggles this season. Their offense, though ranked 28th, has shown some ability to generate runs, particularly with their 19th ranking in homers. With Burrows on the mound for the Pirates, Texas may find opportunities to exploit a struggling opponent, making them a solid bet to secure a win.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Jacob deGrom’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 93rd percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)Jonah Heim has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.4-mph dropping to 76.8-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Marcus Semien pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+170)Mike Burrows is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #27 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Extreme flyball hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Jacob deGrom.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Alexander Canario).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+115)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 73 games (+16.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 72 games (+20.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+115/-150)Spencer Horwitz has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.60 Units / 57% ROI)