Discover the Pirates vs Royals Game Time – July 07, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 7, 2025, both teams find themselves mired in disappointing seasons. The Royals currently sit at 43-48, while the Pirates are struggling with a 38-53 record. With both teams unlikely to contend for a playoff spot, this matchup serves as a chance for players to showcase their talent beyond the standings.

In their last game, the Pirates managed a hard-fought victory, but their overall performance has been underwhelming, as they rank 29th in MLB in team offense. The Royals, on the other hand, have an offense ranked 28th, making this matchup a battle of two struggling lineups. Each team will look to its starting pitcher for a spark.

Noah Cameron is projected to take the mound for the Royals. Despite being the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Cameron has shown flashes of brilliance with an impressive ERA of 2.56 this season. However, his xFIP of 4.33 suggests he may not maintain this level of performance. Cameron’s low strikeout rate of 19.3% could work to his advantage against a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts.

Andrew Heaney will counter for the Pirates, a pitcher who has struggled this season. Heaney’s ERA of 4.16 is above average, but his 18.4% strikeout rate may hinder his effectiveness, especially against a Royals lineup that strikes out the least in MLB.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Royals are favored with a moneyline of -150, suggesting confidence in their ability to come out on top despite their flaws. With both teams looking to gain momentum, this matchup could be pivotal for individual performances as they head into the second half of the season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has fallen 2 mph this season (89.5 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under Total Bases
  Joey Bart has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 2.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 15.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 10th-worst) when it comes to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Noah Cameron is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 6th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jac Caglianone has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 3.2% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 90 games (+34.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jac Caglianone – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Jac Caglianone has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)