Discover the Pirates vs Royals Game Time – July 07, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Kansas City Royals

On July 7, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Kauffman Stadium in the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Royals sitting at 43-48, while the Pirates are even further behind at 38-53. The Royals recently secured a shutout victory against their opponents, winning 4-0, which could be a momentum shift for them, while the Pirates fell short, losing 1-0 in their last outing.

The matchup features two left-handed pitchers: Kansas City’s Noah Cameron and Pittsburgh’s Andrew Heaney. Cameron, with a solid ERA of 2.56, has been effective but has a below-average strikeout rate of 19.3%. Heaney, on the other hand, has struggled this season with a 4.16 ERA and is ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB. This could heavily favor the Royals, especially given that their offense, despite being ranked 26th in the league, has some underlying talent.

Cameron’s ability to generate fly balls (40% FB rate) aligns well against a Pirates team that has hit the fewest home runs in MLB this season. The projections suggest that Cameron’s favorable matchup against a high-strikeout Pirates offense, which ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts, could allow him to perform well today.

Meanwhile, Andrew Heaney faces a Royals lineup that, while not prolific, has the potential to capitalize on his own low-strikeout tendencies. The Royals are projected to score an average of 4.60 runs, making them the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150. In contrast, the Pirates are underdogs with a moneyline of +125 and an average projected total of 3.90 runs. The Royals aim to take advantage of their home-field edge and the struggles of the Pirates as they continue to search for consistency in their play.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Andrew Heaney’s fastball velocity has fallen 2 mph this season (89.5 mph) below where it was last season (91.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Tommy Pham tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Noah Cameron.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pittsburgh Pirates hitters as a unit rank among the worst in MLB this year ( 10th-worst) when it comes to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Because flyball batters face a disadvantage against flyball pitchers, Noah Cameron (42.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 3 FB hitters in the opposing team’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nick Loftin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Nick Loftin has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 90 games (+34.50 Units / 33% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1500)
  Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+12.50 Units / 179% ROI)