Discover the Phillies vs Marlins Preview and Prediction – Friday May 01, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

@

Miami Marlins

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Zack Wheeler has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 58% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Justin Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Justin Crawford are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Eury Perez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under Total Bases
  Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 4th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Eury Perez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Eury Perez’s 2640-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 100th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Owen Caissie – Over/Under Total Bases
  Owen Caissie has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 14.6% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby, Owen Caissie).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 45 games (+9.05 Units / 17% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 34% ROI)