Discover the Game Time for White Sox vs Athletics – Monday August 05, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Oakland Athletics

On August 5, 2024, the Oakland Athletics will host the Chicago White Sox at Oakland Coliseum in the first game of their series. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Athletics holding a record of 46-67 while the White Sox sit at a dismal 27-87. While it’s a match-up of two of the worst teams in MLB, the Athletics are favored to win with a moneyline of -185 and an implied win probability of 63%.

The Athletics are coming off a close loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, falling 3-2, while the White Sox suffered a rough defeat against the Minnesota Twins, losing 13-7. Oakland’s projected starter, JP Sears, is coming off a strong performance where he pitched 7 innings without allowing an earned run and striking out 9 batters. Sears has been an average pitcher this season, recording a 4.53 ERA with a relatively high flyball rate of 41%. He faces a White Sox offense that has generated the 3rd least home runs in MLB this year with just 90 total.

In contrast, the White Sox will send out Ky Bush, who has struggled in his limited appearances and is projected to pitch fewer than 5 innings today. His ability to manage walks has been poor, allowing 1.8 walks on average, which could give the Athletics’ hitters an opportunity to capitalize.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Athletics are expected to score 4.64 runs against a White Sox bullpen ranked dead last in the league. With the Athletics’ best hitter, Brent Rooker, producing solid numbers this season, they may just find the offense necessary to take advantage of the White Sox’s current woes. With all these factors considered, one might find value in betting on the Athletics to secure a win in this matchup.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Ky Bush – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Ky Bush has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.289) provides evidence that Lenyn Sosa has had bad variance on his side this year with his .228 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• It may be best to expect positive regression for the Chicago White Sox offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  JP Sears’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (55.9% compared to 49.7% last year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Brent Rooker has strong power (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (30.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Ky Bush struggles to strike batters out (10th percentile K%) — great news for Rooker.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Oakland Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 away games (+7.85 Units / 55% ROI)
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Brent Rooker has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)