Discover the Game Time for Rockies vs D-Backs – Saturday May 17, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on May 17, 2025, the stakes are clear. Arizona is currently holding a solid record of 24-21 and riding high after an impressive 8-0 shutout victory over Colorado in their previous matchup. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling profoundly at 7-37, marking one of the worst starts in recent MLB history.

In this National League West clash, Zac Gallen takes the mound for the Diamondbacks. Gallen, ranked 40th among starting pitchers according to the leading MLB projection system, has had an up-and-down season with a 3-5 record and a 4.59 ERA. However, more advanced metrics like his 3.92 FIP suggest he has been unlucky, indicating his potential for improvement. Gallen projects to pitch an average of 6 innings today while allowing around 2.4 earned runs, making him a favorable option against the Rockies’ struggling offense.

On the opposing side, German Marquez will start for Colorado. Despite a somewhat solid performance in his last outing, where he pitched 7 innings with only 1 earned run, Marquez’s overall stats—an 8.27 ERA and a low strikeout rate—paint a grim picture for Rockies fans. His projected 5.3 innings with 3.3 earned runs underscores the challenge he faces against a Diamondbacks lineup ranked 3rd in MLB.

With the Diamondbacks being massive betting favorites and an implied total of 6.53 runs for today’s game, the Rockies will need to defy expectations to keep the game competitive. Given the current form and offensive capabilities, Arizona appears well-positioned to capitalize on Colorado’s woes and secure another victory.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• German Marquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  German Marquez’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 81st percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nick Martini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Nick Martini stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Today, Mickey Moniak is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.2% rate (84th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-370)
  Zac Gallen is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #29 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball bats like Eugenio Suarez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like German Marquez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -1.0 (-185)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+4.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+15.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+245/-340)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+8.70 Units / 217% ROI)