
Chicago White Sox
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Philadelphia Phillies
+160O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)-185
(-110/-110)-185
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Anthony Kay – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)Generating 14.3 outs per outing this year on average, Anthony Kay places him the 20th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Tristan Peters – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Tristan Peters has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 83.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Chicago White Sox bats jointly rank 6th- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 9.7% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Jesus Luzardo has relied on his change-up 5.5% more often this season (22.8%) than he did last season (17.3%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Edmundo Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)As it relates to his home runs, Edmundo Sosa has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 23.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.2.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Bryce Harper has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 22 games (+13.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI)
