Washington Nationals
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-230
On May 28, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Washington Nationals at T-Mobile Park, marking the second game of their interleague series. The Mariners are having a solid season with a 30-23 record, while the Nationals sit at 24-30, struggling to find their footing. In their last matchup, the Mariners edged out the Nationals in a close contest, showcasing their potential.
Seattle’s George Kirby is projected to start, bringing with him a mixed bag of results this year. Despite being ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to Power Rankings, his Win/Loss record of 0-1 and a concerning ERA of 12.27 raise eyebrows. However, the projections suggest he has been unlucky, with a much better 4.53 xFIP indicating he could turn things around. Kirby’s ability to limit walks (5.3 BB% this year) will face a Nationals offense that ranks 5th in least walks, potentially giving the hitters an edge.
On the other hand, Trevor Williams, who has struggled with a 6.39 ERA and a 2-5 record, will take the mound for Washington. His projected 5.0 innings pitched and 3.0 earned runs allowed are less than ideal, especially when facing a Mariners offense that ranks 10th overall and is particularly strong in home runs, ranking 6th in that category.
With the Mariners’ offense firing on all cylinders and their pitching staff looking to bounce back, they are favored to win this matchup. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair. Seattle’s offense, featuring a powerful lineup, could maximize their opportunities against a struggling Nationals pitching staff.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Trevor Williams – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)Trevor Williams’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this year (86.9 mph) below where it was last season (88.8 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Nathaniel Lowe has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)George Kirby is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #9 HR venue among all parks — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Washington (#3-worst of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Projected catcher Cal Raleigh profiles as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 away games (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-120/-110)Cal Raleigh has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+6.45 Units / 40% ROI)