Discover the Brewers vs Cubs Game Time – July 22, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers are set to kick off a National League Central matchup at Wrigley Field on July 22, 2024. The Cubs, currently holding a 48-53 record, are having a below-average season, while the Brewers, with a 57-42 record, are enjoying a great season. Despite the disparity in standings, this game is projected to be a close one.

The Cubs will send right-hander Javier Assad to the mound. Assad has started 17 games this season, compiling a 4-3 record with a solid 3.27 ERA. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat lucky and might not sustain this performance. In his last outing on July 13, Assad struggled, lasting just 2 innings and allowing 3 earned runs on 7 hits and 2 walks. He’ll look to bounce back against a potent Brewers lineup.

Milwaukee counters with right-hander Tobias Myers, who has been a bit of a surprise this season. Myers boasts a 6-3 record and an impressive 3.13 ERA over 13 starts, though his 4.03 xFIP hints at potential regression. Myers was stellar in his last start on July 10, pitching 8 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts, 4 hits, and 1 walk. He’ll aim to continue his strong form against a Cubs offense that ranks 19th in MLB.

Offensively, the Cubs have struggled, ranking 22nd in team batting average and 20th in home runs. Ian Happ has been their standout performer, with 53 runs, 58 RBIs, and 15 home runs. On the other hand, the Brewers have the 7th best offense, ranking 4th in team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases. Willy Adames leads the charge with 52 runs, 67 RBIs, and 15 home runs.

Both bullpens have been weak, with the Cubs ranked 29th and the Brewers 21st according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, despite the game total being set at 8.0 runs.

The Cubs are currently +100 underdogs with an implied win probability of 48%, while the Brewers are -120 favorites with a 52% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects this game as a true toss-up, giving both teams a 50% chance of winning. Expect a tightly contested game as these division rivals face off.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average hurler, Tobias Myers has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -10.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Javier Assad has relied on his non-fastballs 5.6% less often this year (44.5%) than he did last year (50.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.291) suggests that Pete Crow-Armstrong has experienced some negative variance this year with his .239 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  When estimating his overall offensive ability, Seiya Suzuki ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 92 games (+11.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 99 games (+10.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)