Discover the Betting Trends for Marlins vs Pirates Game - Friday, June 12, 2026

+120O/U: 8.5
(-120/+100)-140

Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
Sandy Alcantara has relied on his curveball 15.5% less often this season (2.5%) than he did last season (18%).
Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
Otto Lopez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+135/-170)
When it comes to his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 10th-best hitter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
Heriberto Hernandez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 79th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Braxton Ashcraft’s 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 92nd percentile among all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-250)
Spencer Horwitz has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The underlying talent of the Pittsburgh Pirates projected lineup today (.313 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be quite a bit worse than their .325 wOBA this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.50 Units / 41% ROI)
Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
Endy Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+180/-235)
Endy Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 62% ROI)

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