Discover the Best Player Props for Braves vs Twins – 8/28/2024

Atlanta Braves

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Minnesota Twins

As two of the league’s stronger teams clash, the Minnesota Twins (72-60) and the Atlanta Braves (72-60) meet for the third game of their interleague series at Target Field on August 28, 2024. Both teams are having above-average seasons, and the stakes are high as they look to solidify their positions heading into the final stretch. In their previous matchup, the Braves edged out the Twins with an 8-6 victory, making this game crucial for the Twins as they seek revenge on their home turf.

The Twins will send right-handed pitcher David Festa to the mound, who has struggled with a 5.20 ERA this season, but his 3.53 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could improve. Festa’s projections suggest he’ll pitch around 4.7 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs while striking out an average of 5.5 batters, which is pretty standard. Meanwhile, the Braves will counter with Chris Sale, an elite lefty boasting a stellar 2.62 ERA and a 14-3 record. Sale’s projections are equally impressive, as he’s expected to pitch around 5.9 innings with just 2.2 earned runs and 7.1 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Twins rank 6th in MLB, with standout performances from hitters like Willi Castro and recent hot streaks from players like Matt Wallner. Despite a low projected team total of 3.60 runs for the Twins, the projections still give them a fighting chance against a Braves offense that has averaged a decent 4.27 runs per game.

Betting markets currently favor the Braves, reflected in their -130 moneyline, while the Twins sit at +110. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested matchup as both teams vie for important wins late in the season.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+100/-130)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Chris Sale has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an extra 6.4 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Matt Olson is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Minnesota Twins only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Atlanta Braves hitters as a group rank 2nd- in the game for power this year when using their 10% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• David Festa – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 7 hitters who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, David Festa should benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jose Miranda – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  As it relates to his batting average, Jose Miranda has had positive variance on his side this year. His .299 figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .264.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 33 games at home (+12.90 Units / 32% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 105 games (+22.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Ramon Laureano has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.25 Units / 34% ROI)