Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Brewers vs Padres – 9/23/25

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to take on the Milwaukee Brewers on September 23, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League matchup. The Padres currently sit at 86-71, enjoying an above-average season, while the Brewers boast a strong 95-62 record, marking them as one of the top teams in the league. In their last encounter, the Padres edged out the Brewers 5-4, adding to the competitive atmosphere of this series.

The Padres are set to start Randy Vasquez, a right-handed pitcher whose recent performance has been less than stellar. In his last outing on September 18, Vasquez lasted just 2 innings, allowing 4 earned runs. His season statistics reveal a 5-7 record with a 3.94 ERA, but his 5.56 xFIP indicates he may have been lucky so far. Vasquez is projected to pitch around 4.6 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs on average while striking out only 2.7 batters, which could be a concern against a Brewers offense that ranks as the 9th best in MLB.

Bruce Zimmermann, the Brewers’ left-handed starter, also struggles in the pitching department and is projected to allow 2.5 earned runs while pitching 4.9 innings. However, the Brewers’ offense, led by their best hitter, ranks 2nd in batting average and has shown solid production, including a recent surge with a .400 batting average over the last week.

With the Padres’ bullpen ranked 2nd best in MLB, they may have the edge in late-game situations. Despite the betting markets giving the Padres a +110 moneyline, the projections suggest they could outperform expectations today. This matchup promises to be tightly contested, and with both teams bringing their best, fans can expect an exciting game at Petco Park.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jake Bauers has big-time HR ability (91st percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez is a pitch-to-contact type (15th percentile K%) — great news for Bauers.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• It may be best to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Randy Vasquez has been granted less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -9.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  There has been a decrease in Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity this season, from 85.8 mph last year to 83 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 65 of their last 113 games (+11.85 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 118 games (+27.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+150/-195)
  Jake Bauers has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+7.25 Units / 48% ROI)