Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Yankees vs Blue Jays – 8/14/2026

New York Yankees

@

Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-190)
  Generating 17.3 outs per GS this year on average, Gerrit Cole falls in the 85th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Wells’s true offensive talent to be a .299, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .042 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .257 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• The New York Yankees have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ryan McMahon, Spencer Jones).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Shane Bieber’s high usage percentage of his secondary pitches (61.9% this year) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays batters as a unit rank 30th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 6% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.40 Units / 23% ROI)
• Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+135/-180)
  Trent Grisham has hit the Walks Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.10 Units / 22% ROI)