Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Pirates vs Cubs – 8/17/2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field on August 17, 2025, in a crucial National League Central matchup. With the Cubs sitting at 69-53, they are enjoying a solid season, while the Pirates, at 52-72, are struggling significantly. Notably, the Cubs won their last encounter against the Pirates 3-1, continuing their upward trend.

Javier Assad is projected to start for the Cubs. Although ranked as the 206th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, which reflects his struggles, his 9.00 ERA is misleading. The projections suggest he has been unlucky and may perform better moving forward. In his last outing on August 12, Assad pitched four innings, allowing four earned runs, which raises some concern about his consistency.

Carmen Mlodzinski will take the mound for the Pirates. Although he has a higher ERA of 4.20, he has made 24 appearances out of the bullpen, indicating he’s been more utilized in relief roles. His last start on May 17 was short, allowing four earned runs in just three innings. Mlodzinski’s low strikeout rate may pose challenges against a Cubs offense ranked 6th in MLB, demonstrating their ability to connect with the ball and avoid strikeouts.

The Cubs have an impressive projected team total of 4.28 runs, thanks to their strong offensive metrics—ranking 4th in stolen bases, 8th in batting average, and 7th in home runs. In contrast, the Pirates, who rank dead last in offensive performance, are projected to struggle, with a meager team total of 3.22 runs. Given these disparities, the Cubs appear poised to capitalize on their strengths and secure another win against the Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Andrew Heaney has gone to his four-seam fastball 6.4% less often this year (43.5%) than he did last year (49.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Nick Gonzales – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  Nick Gonzales’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-210/+160)
  Tommy Pham has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-185)
  The Chicago Cubs outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-185)
  The 4th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+12.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 59 away games (+23.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.80 Units / 59% ROI)