D-Backs vs Yankees Match Preview and Winning Probability – Wednesday April 02, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

New York Yankees

On April 2, 2025, the New York Yankees will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Yankee Stadium in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup. Both teams enter the game with strong early-season performances, as the Yankees hold a 3-1 record and the Diamondbacks stand at 3-2. In their most recent game, the Yankees fell to the D-Backs by a score of 7-5, while the D-Backs celebrated a victory on the same day.

Carlos Rodon is projected to take the mound for New York, and he has been impressive thus far, with a 1.69 ERA despite being ranked as the 106th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 2.99 xFIP indicates that he may have benefited from some good fortune early on. Rodon is known for his high strikeout rate (31.8 K%), but he’ll face a Diamondbacks offense that has been adept at avoiding strikeouts, ranking 6th least in MLB.

Zac Gallen will be on the hill for Arizona, but he’s struggled this season with a dismal 9.00 ERA. The projections suggest that he could improve, as his xFIP of 6.90 shows he may have been unlucky in his outings. Gallen’s tendency to allow fly balls (46% FB%) could be problematic against a Yankees lineup that boasts the league’s 1st best power numbers with 18 home runs already.

New York’s offense ranks 1st in MLB overall and is projected for a high team total of 4.27 runs today. Given their recent performance and the matchup against Gallen, the Yankees have a solid chance to bounce back from yesterday’s loss and continue their strong start to the season. This game could be pivotal as both teams aim to solidify their positions early in the year.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Zac Gallen has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Since the start of last season, Jake McCarthy’s 2.8% Barrel%, an advanced metric for measuring power, places him in the 6th percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Arizona Diamondbacks bats jointly rank among the elite in MLB since the start of last season (7th-) as far as their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Carlos Rodon’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2328 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2384 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Aaron Judge’s 96.3-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in baseball since the start of last season: 100th percentile.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 122 games (+15.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 100 games (+28.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-155/+120)
  Carlos Rodon has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 33% ROI)