D-Backs vs Padres Injury Report – Sunday, September 28, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres

On September 28, 2025, the San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the third game of their series at Petco Park. In yesterday’s matchup, the Padres notched a convincing 5-1 victory, further solidifying their position with an impressive 89-72 record this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks sit at 80-81, having had a relatively average year.

The Padres are projected to start JP Sears, a left-hander who has been a bit unlucky this season, boasting a 5.12 ERA but a 4.47 SIERA, indicating he might perform better in future outings. His performance is critical as he faces Brandon Pfaadt, a right-handed pitcher whose 5.00 ERA is below average and is regarded as a bad pitcher by advanced metrics. Pfaadt has struggled with consistency and may find it tough against a Padres offense that, despite ranking 16th overall, ranks 7th in team batting average.

The Padres will count on their best hitter, who has been red-hot recently with a .476 batting average and 1.208 OPS over the last week. This type of performance could exploit Pfaadt’s vulnerabilities, particularly considering he has a low strikeout rate, which plays into the hands of a Padres lineup that strikes out less frequently than most teams.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets see this matchup as closely contested, yet the projections lean slightly toward the Padres, who have the advantages in both recent performances and offensive capabilities. Given Pfaadt’s struggles and Sears’ potential to turn around his season, this game could see the Padres continuing their successful run.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Throwing 92.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  James McCann has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.6-mph average to last season’s 86.9-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against JP Sears in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Jackson Merrill has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .327 mark is considerably lower than his .361 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 156 games (+13.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 126 games (+13.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+160/-210)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Walks Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.75 Units / 41% ROI)