D-Backs vs Padres Injury Report – Sunday, September 28, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 28, 2025, they’re looking to build on a strong season that has them at 89-72, while the Diamondbacks sit at 80-81. The stakes are high in this National League West matchup, especially after the Padres defeated the Diamondbacks 5-1 in their last game.

Nick Pivetta, projected to start for the Padres, has been a key contributor this year, boasting a Win/Loss record of 13-5 and an impressive ERA of 2.87. However, his 3.84 xFIP indicates that he might have been a bit fortunate this season and could see a decline in performance. Pivetta’s recent outing was relatively uneventful, allowing 3 earned runs in 6 innings with 5 walks, which is concerning given his projected numbers today—especially his average of 4.5 hits allowed.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Despite a Win/Loss record of 13-8, Pfaadt’s 5.00 ERA is below average, although his projections suggest he may perform better than expected after a recent outing where he allowed 3 earned runs in 6 innings. With a low strikeout rate of 19.0 K%, Pfaadt faces a Padres offense that ranks 3rd in the league for fewest strikeouts. This matchup could give the Padres a significant edge, especially considering their offensive talent, which ranks 7th in batting average but struggles with power, sitting 28th in home runs.

Both teams will look to leverage their strengths, but the Padres have the advantage, especially with a bullpen ranked 7th best in MLB. As the season winds down, each game counts, and this one could be pivotal for the Padres as they aim to secure their playoff position.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Throwing 92.5 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under Total Bases
  Gabriel Moreno has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 82.7-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Nick Pivetta has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed hitters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under Total Bases
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (0.0) implies that Luis Arraez has experienced some positive variance this year with his 7.2 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under Total Bases
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under Game Total
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 156 games (+13.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 126 games (+13.55 Units / 8% ROI)