Check the Weather for Twins vs Mets Game – 7/29/2024

Minnesota Twins

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New York Mets

The New York Mets and Minnesota Twins are set to face off at Citi Field on July 29, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Mets, currently sitting at 55-50, are having an above-average season and find themselves in the thick of the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Twins boast a 58-46 record, reflecting a strong season as well.

The Mets will send left-hander Jose Quintana to the mound. Quintana, ranked as the #157 starter by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has struggled this season. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, strike out 4.6 batters, and issue 1.6 walks. These projections highlight his below-average performance, particularly with a terrible hits and walks allowance.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with right-hander Simeon Woods Richard. Woods Richard also faces challenges, as he is considered a below-average pitcher by advanced metrics. His projections include 5.0 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs allowed, 4.3 strikeouts, and 1.6 walks. Both pitchers will need to navigate strong opposing lineups to find success.

Offensively, the Mets have been impressive. They rank 10th in team batting average, 4th in home runs, and 12th in stolen bases. Francisco Lindor has been on fire over the last week, hitting .276 with five home runs, 10 RBIs, and a 1.171 OPS. His hot streak will be crucial for the Mets as they look to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

The Twins also bring a potent offense, ranking 7th in team batting average and 8th in home runs. However, they struggle with speed on the bases, ranking 25th in stolen bases. Matt Wallner has been the standout hitter for the Twins recently, boasting a .417 batting average and a 1.617 OPS over the last week.

Betting markets see this as a close contest, with the Mets slightly favored at -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Twins are at +100, indicating a 48% chance. With a game total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair as these two teams kick off their series.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Simeon Woods Richardson’s high usage rate of his secondary pitches (59.8% this year) should work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Royce Lewis – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Based on Statcast metrics, Royce Lewis ranks in the 97th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 33.700.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Jose Quintana’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (91.1 mph) has been significantly higher than than his seasonal rate (90.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Over the last two weeks, Brandon Nimmo’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The New York Mets have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (J.D. Martinez, Mark Vientos, Luis Torrens).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Run Line +1.5 (-205)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+105/-135)
  Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 62% ROI)