Minnesota Twins
San Francisco Giants
(-120/+100)-160
As the San Francisco Giants prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on July 14, 2024, at Oracle Park, both teams find themselves in starkly different positions this season. The Giants, with a 46-50 record, are having a below-average campaign, while the Twins, at 54-41, are enjoying a good season.
Yesterday, the Giants fell short against the Twins, losing 4-2 despite being slight favorites with a -130 Moneyline and a 54% implied win probability. The Twins, on the other hand, came through as +110 underdogs with a 46% implied win probability. Both teams are set to send contrasting starting pitchers to the mound for the third game of this interleague series. The Giants will start left-hander Blake Snell, ranked the 38th best starting pitcher by advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Twins will counter with right-hander Chris Paddack, considered average by the same metrics.
Blake Snell’s season has been a paradox. Despite a dreadful 7.85 ERA, his xFIP of 4.42 suggests underlying bad luck and a likelihood of improved performance. His last start on July 9 was a positive sign, as he went 5 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out three and walking three. Snell’s profile as a high-flyball pitcher (38% FB%) could be a concern against a Twins offense that ranks 6th in MLB with 115 home runs. The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 2nd in Power Rankings, might be leaned on heavily if Snell falters.
Chris Paddack, with a 5.18 ERA and a slightly better 4.07 xFIP, also looks to be a case of bad luck. His last outing on July 8 saw him give up two earned runs over five innings. While Paddack has been more stable, the Twins’ bullpen, ranked 3rd by Power Rankings, will also play a vital role.
Offensively, the Giants rank 13th overall, with an average team batting average (14th) but lack power and speed, ranking 22nd in home runs and dead last in stolen bases. Matt Chapman has been their standout hitter with 62 runs and 13 home runs over 93 games. The Twins’ offense, one of the best in the league, ranks 5th overall and boasts a higher team batting average (4th), along with solid power numbers. Willi Castro has led the charge with 54 runs and a .269 batting average.
With both teams’ bullpens among the top three and the Twins’ offensive edge, this game promises to be a tightly contested match. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a slight edge with a 60% win probability, making them the betting favorite with a -155 Moneyline. The Giants are projected to score 4.33 runs, while the Twins are expected to tally 3.71 runs, suggesting a low-scoring game with the total set at 7.5 runs.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Chris Paddack – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)Chris Paddack is projected to allow an average of 1.3 walks in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Carlos Santana is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Matt Wallner pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Blake Snell has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Jorge Soler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Jorge Soler’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 89.5-mph seasonal average has dropped to 86.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 67 games (+10.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Max Kepler – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-270)Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)