Check the Weather for Tigers vs White Sox Game – 8/23/2024

Detroit Tigers

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Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on August 23, 2024, both teams come into this matchup needing a boost, but the stakes are particularly low for the White Sox, who have already been eliminated from winning their division. Chicago’s struggles this season are evident, as they sit at 31-97, one of the worst records in the league. Meanwhile, the Tigers are hovering around .500 at 62-66, aiming to finish the season on a positive note, but they too have underperformed relative to expectations.

In this series opener, the White Sox will send Chris Flexen to the mound, who has had a challenging year with a 2-12 record and an ERA of 5.46. Despite his struggles, advanced projections indicate that he may have been unlucky, as his expected ERA (xERA) is 0.50 points lower than his actual performance. Flexen’s ability to limit walks, projected at 1.6 per game, will be critical against a Tigers lineup that has shown only modest power, ranking 18th in home runs.

On the other side, Keider Montero will take the hill for Detroit. Montero’s performance has also been lackluster, with a record of 4-5 and an ERA of 5.28. His projections suggest he is likely to give up around 5.3 hits and 1.3 walks per game, which could be problematic against a White Sox offense that, while ranked 30th in MLB, has shown flashes of potential through players like Luis Robert.

As the game total is set at an average of 8.5 runs, and with the Tigers favored at -160 while the White Sox sit at +135 on the moneyline, there may be an opportunity for bettors to see value in the underdog. With both pitchers struggling, this matchup could lead to a surprising offensive explosion.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Keider Montero’s 94.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 77th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  As it relates to his batting average, Spencer Torkelson has been very fortunate this year. His .217 rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .172.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Detroit’s 88.4-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the worst in the league: #22 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chris Flexen – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Chris Flexen has averaged 14.5 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 12th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (59% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 65 games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)
  Luis Robert has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)