Check the Weather for Red Sox vs Blue Jays Game – 9/24/2025

Boston Red Sox

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Toronto Blue Jays

On September 24, 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays will host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre in what promises to be an exciting matchup between two American League East rivals. The Blue Jays currently sit at 90-67, enjoying a strong season, while the Red Sox have an above-average record of 86-71. Last night, the Blue Jays secured a vital win in the first game of the series, setting the stage for an intriguing continuation today.

The pitching matchup features Max Scherzer for Toronto, who has had a mixed season with a 5-4 record and a 5.06 ERA. Despite these numbers, Scherzer’s 4.34 SIERA suggests he has been unlucky, and he could bounce back today. His average projection of 5.5 innings pitched and 2.5 earned runs allowed indicates he may offer a steadier performance than his ERA suggests.

On the other hand, Garrett Crochet will take the mound for Boston, boasting an impressive 17-5 record and an excellent 2.69 ERA. With an elite ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, Crochet’s high strikeout rate (31.6 K%) could pose challenges for the Blue Jays’ offense, which ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone lineup in the league. The projections imply that Crochet should perform well, but the Blue Jays’ powerful offense, ranked 3rd overall, may find ways to capitalize on Crochet’s weaknesses.

Toronto’s offense has been prolific, leading the league in batting average and maintaining a solid performance despite their low strikeout rate. The Blue Jays, currently underdogs with a moneyline of +120, have a low implied team total of just 3.49 runs for today’s game. However, with their offensive talent and the potential for Scherzer to outperform his recent form, they could exceed expectations. Meanwhile, Boston’s offense ranks 8th overall, indicating they should also be in for a solid outing against Scherzer.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Garrett Crochet has utilized his slider 6% more often this season (15.7%) than he did last season (9.7%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Masataka Yoshida – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Toronto’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Masataka Yoshida, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+120)
  Out of every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 129 games (+20.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-140)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 100 games (+13.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+140/-180)
  Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.50 Units / 68% ROI)