Check the Weather for Marlins vs Pirates Game – 6/10/2025

Miami Marlins

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Miami Marlins on June 10, 2025, both teams are looking to rebound from disappointing seasons. The Pirates currently sit at 27-40, while the Marlins are slightly behind at 24-40. In their last matchup, the Pirates emerged victorious with a commanding 10-3 win, further highlighting the struggles of the Marlins, who have now lost four consecutive games.

Projected starters Mitch Keller for the Pirates and Sandy Alcantara for the Marlins present an interesting contrast. Keller, despite a rough 1-8 record and a 4.13 ERA, has shown signs of being unlucky this season, as indicated by his 3.26 FIP, suggesting he could improve. He projects to pitch 6.2 innings while allowing around 3.0 earned runs. However, he faces a Marlins offense that ranks 18th in MLB, which has struggled to find consistent power, ranking 26th in home runs.

On the other hand, Alcantara’s season has been tumultuous, with a 2-7 record and a troubling 7.89 ERA. Despite the poor numbers, projections indicate he could perform better, as his xFIP suggests he has been unlucky as well. He’s projected to pitch 6.0 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs, which might give the Marlins a fighting chance if they can capitalize on Keller’s inconsistencies.

While the Pirates’ offense is ranked 27th overall, their best hitter is currently in form, boasting a .429 batting average over the last week. This could be pivotal in helping the Pirates capitalize on their home-field advantage at PNC Park. With the Pirates favored in the betting lines, they will look to build on their recent success and exploit the Marlins’ struggles.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Because groundball pitchers have a sizeable advantage over groundball bats, Sandy Alcantara and his 50.7% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in today’s outing squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Eric Wagaman is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Today, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37% rate (93rd percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  With 6 hitters who share the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Mitch Keller ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-205/+155)
  Adam Frazier’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 84.4-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 81.5-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be best to expect improved performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.10 Units / 18% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 35% ROI)
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-130/+100)
  Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.80 Units / 45% ROI)