Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Guardians vs Royals Analysis - 9/25/2026

-140O/U: 7
(-115/-105)+120

Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
Compared to the average hurler, Gavin Williams has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.4 adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.3-mph EV last season has dropped to 83.5-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
Michael Massey pulls many of his flyballs (38.5% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kansas City Royals – Moneyline (+120)
The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+5.50 Units / 16% ROI)
Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)
The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 30 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+235/-325)
Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+15.70 Units / 63% ROI)

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