Check the Injuries Update for Twins vs Royals – 4/8/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will host the Minnesota Twins on April 8, 2025, in what marks the second game of their series. Both teams are struggling in the American League Central, with the Royals sitting at a .500 record of 5-5, while the Twins have fallen to 3-7, making it a crucial matchup for both squads.

In their previous game, the Royals showcased their pitching prowess with a solid outing from Cole Ragans, who is projected to take the mound again. Ragans, ranked as the 14th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has a respectable ERA of 3.60 this season. His expected ERA (xERA) of 1.90 suggests he has been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement moving forward. He projects to allow an average of just 2.1 earned runs today, which bodes well against a Twins offense that has struggled significantly, ranking 29th in MLB.

On the other side, Minnesota will counter with Pablo Lopez, who has been effective with a stellar 2.25 ERA. However, his projections indicate he may face challenges today, as he is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs and has a higher xFIP of 3.92. The Royals’ offense, while average overall, ranks 25th in home runs, which could play into Lopez’s favor if he can keep the ball on the ground.

With the Royals’ bullpen currently ranked 26th and the Twins’ at 10th, Kansas City may find themselves at a disadvantage late in the game if it remains close. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tight contest. Betting markets suggest a close matchup, with the Royals holding a slight edge in the moneyline at -120. Overall, this game presents an opportunity for the Royals to capitalize on their pitching and take advantage of the Twins’ offensive woes.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  Pablo Lopez’s 2202.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 19th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Extreme groundball bats like Byron Buxton are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cole Ragans.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Kansas City Royals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  Cole Ragans is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  There has been a significant improvement in Jonathan India’s launch angle from last year’s 13.3° to 33.3° this season.
  Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Michael Massey pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 36 games (+15.90 Units / 40% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 99 games (+15.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Carlos Correa has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+10.10 Units / 66% ROI)