Check the Injuries Update for Twins vs Guardians – 5/1/2025

Minnesota Twins

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Minnesota Twins on May 1, 2025, they come off a solid victory yesterday, winning 4-2. The Guardians currently sit at 17-13, enjoying a strong season, while the Twins, at 13-18, are struggling significantly.

Cleveland’s Ben Lively is projected to take the mound, having started six games this year with a 1-2 record and a 4.40 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 283rd best starting pitcher in MLB, Lively faces a Twins lineup that ranks 22nd in offensive production. His high flyball percentage (45 FB%) could work to his advantage, as the Twins have hit only 25 home runs this season, ranking them 6th least in the league.

On the other side, Minnesota’s Simeon Woods Richard, who has a 2-2 record and a 4.07 ERA, is also struggling with a projected 5.63 xERA that suggests he may not maintain his current form. He pitched well in his last outing, allowing just one earned run, but his overall performance has been below average, as reflected in his Power Rankings.

In terms of offense, both teams have had a rough start to the season. The Guardians rank 20th in MLB for overall offensive performance, and while they are slightly better in home runs (15th), their batting average sits at a disappointing 21st. The Twins are even worse, ranking 23rd in batting average and 26th in home runs.

With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs, oddsmakers expect a competitive matchup. The Guardians’ bullpen is rated as the best in MLB, which may give them an edge if the game remains close late. The Guardians’ current moneyline is +110, indicating that betting markets see this as a tightly contested game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Simeon Woods Richardson (38.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ben Lively.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Minnesota Twins offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Ben Lively has added a cut-fastball to his repertoire this year and has thrown it 7.9% of the time.
  Explain: Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.
• Will Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Will Wilson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.60 Units / 24% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.70 Units / 46% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)