Check the Injuries Update for Rockies vs Brewers – 9/6/2024

Colorado Rockies

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Milwaukee Brewers

On September 6, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Colorado Rockies at American Family Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Brewers are enjoying a strong season, sitting at 81-59, while the Rockies have struggled significantly with a record of 52-89. This matchup is particularly intriguing as the Brewers have been solid at home, and they are projected to start Frankie Montas, who has had an average season but remains a competitive presence on the mound.

In their last game, the Brewers showcased their offensive prowess, which ranks 9th in MLB, highlighted by their 5th-best team batting average. Montas will be facing a Rockies lineup that has the 3rd most strikeouts in the league, which could play into his favor as he is a low-strikeout pitcher, making this an interesting clash of strengths and weaknesses.

Ryan Feltner, projected to start for the Rockies, has had a tough year, sitting with a 1-10 record and a 5.11 ERA. His struggles are compounded by a Rockies offense that ranks 19th overall, showcasing an average performance this season. The projections suggest that while Feltner may be due for some positive regression, he still faces an uphill battle against a Brewers offense that has been particularly potent lately.

With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, oddsmakers have made the Brewers a significant betting favorite, sporting a moneyline of -220 and an implied team total of 4.45 runs. It’s a matchup that clearly favors Milwaukee, making them an appealing choice for bettors looking to capitalize on their current form and overall strength against a struggling Rockies squad.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Ryan Feltner – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Ryan Feltner projects to allow an average of 2 walks in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.279) suggests that Ezequiel Tovar has had some very good luck this year with his .322 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Frankie Montas – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Frankie Montas has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, notching a 7.84 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.86 — a 1.02 K/9 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Jackson Chourio has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 7.4% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #24 group of hitters in MLB this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 139 games (+15.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 68 away games (+4.85 Units / 6% ROI)
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)
  Michael Toglia has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+20.10 Units / 80% ROI)