Check the Injuries Update for Orioles vs Tigers – 9/13/2024

Baltimore Orioles

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on September 13, 2024, the stakes are palpable, especially for the Orioles, who are vying to solidify their playoff position. Currently sitting at 83-64, Baltimore boasts a solid record compared to Detroit’s 75-72, which reflects an average season for the Tigers.

In their last outings, both teams faced setbacks; the Tigers fell to the Colorado Rockies 4-2, while the Orioles lost a closer game to the Boston Red Sox, 5-3. Despite these losses, the Tigers are projected to start Beau Brieske, who has shown flashes of promise this season, though his last start was abbreviated at just one inning. Meanwhile, Zach Eflin will take the mound for the Orioles. His reputation as a quality pitcher is backed by a Power Ranking of 28th among approximately 350 starters, indicating he’s in the upper echelon of the league.

From an offensive standpoint, the Orioles enjoy a significant advantage. Their offense ranks 5th in MLB, driven by standout performances from hitters like Gunnar Henderson, who has accumulated 36 home runs this season. In stark contrast, the Tigers’ offense struggles, sitting at 24th overall, and relies heavily on their best hitter, Riley Greene.

The projections for this matchup show a close contest, with the Tigers at an implied win probability of 46% and the Orioles at 54%. However, THE BAT X forecasts a slight edge for the Tigers, projecting their average runs at 4.06 compared to the Orioles’ 4.41. This could mean that, despite their struggles, the Tigers might pull off a surprising victory if their offense can capitalize on Eflin’s low-walk tendencies against their disciplined lineup.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Zach Eflin – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Zach Eflin has used his curveball 7.9% less often this season (18.6%) than he did last year (26.5%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Adley Rutschman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Adley Rutschman has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph dropping to 82.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (-130)
  The 4th-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+110)
  The Detroit Tigers infield defense projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.179) implies that Spencer Torkelson has been very fortunate this year with his .216 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Detroit Tigers bats as a group rank near the cellar of the league this year ( 10th-worst) in regard to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 70 games (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+14.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Dillon Dingler – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+220/-300)
  Dillon Dingler has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 48% ROI)