Check the Injuries Update for D-Backs vs Cardinals – 5/25/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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St. Louis Cardinals

On May 25, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Busch Stadium in what shapes up to be an exciting matchup. The Cardinals currently sit at 29-23, enjoying a solid season, while the Diamondbacks are hovering around .500 with a record of 26-26. In their previous encounter on May 24, the Cardinals edged the Diamondbacks in a close game, securing a 6-5 victory.

Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for St. Louis, bringing a 5-1 record and an ERA of 4.02 this season. Despite his ERA being above average, his 3.28 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit unlucky, indicating the potential for improved performance. Gray excels with a high strikeout rate of 26.9%, although he faces a challenge against a low-strikeout Diamondbacks lineup. Additionally, his tendency to allow fly balls could be problematic against a potent Arizona offense that ranks 5th in home runs this season.

On the other side, Brandon Pfaadt will counter for Arizona. With a record of 7-3 and a solid ERA of 3.81, he has benefited from some luck, as indicated by his higher 6.30 xERA. Pfaadt’s low strikeout rate of 18.5% could be an issue against a Cardinals lineup that boasts the 9th best offense in MLB.

Despite betting markets giving the Cardinals a slight edge with a moneyline of -125, the team’s 21st ranking in home runs and stolen bases raises concerns. However, the projections still favor the Cardinals, suggesting they have the tools to capitalize on their hitting strength against a potentially vulnerable Pfaadt. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, hinting at a close, competitive battle.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue in the league today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Corbin Carroll has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last year’s 89.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Sonny Gray has relied on his cut-fastball 5.9% less often this year (11.9%) than he did last year (17.8%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Brandon Pfaadt.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 8th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-130)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Lars Nootbaar has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)