Check the Injuries Update for Astros vs Rays – 9/11/2026

Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays

Houston Astros Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Miguel Ullola may not pitch more than a couple innings considering he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Today’s version of the Astros projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .310 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .328 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.6% more often this year (48.4%) than he did last year (41.8%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Chandler Simpson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Tampa Bay Rays batters as a group grade out 29th- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 5.9% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+195/-265)
  Isaac Paredes has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+7.80 Units / 87% ROI)