Check Out Yankees vs Pirates Picks and Betting Tips – Sunday April 6th, 2025

New York Yankees

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face off against the New York Yankees on April 6, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position, sitting at the bottom of the standings with a 2-7 record. In contrast, the Yankees are thriving, boasting a strong 6-2 record and ranking as the 1st best offense in MLB. This matchup promises to be a significant test for the Pirates, who are struggling to find their footing this season.

In their previous game, the Yankees showcased their power by winning decisively, which sets a daunting tone for the Pirates. The Yankees will send Will Warren to the mound, a right-handed pitcher with a 3.60 ERA this season. While Warren’s numbers suggest he may not be elite, he has the potential to exploit the Pirates’ weaknesses. On the other hand, Andrew Heaney, projected to start for the Pirates, has a stellar 1.80 ERA this season but is ranked as the 223rd best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics. This discrepancy indicates that Heaney might be due for regression, especially with a higher xFIP of 4.59.

Offensively, the Pirates’ lineup has been underwhelming, ranking 45th in MLB, while the Yankees lead the league in home runs. However, the Pirates do rank 5th in walks, which could be an advantage against Warren, who struggles with control, boasting a 21.1 BB% this year.

The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair. The Pirates are underdogs with a moneyline of +145, reflecting their struggles but offering a tempting opportunity for bettors who might see value in their patient offense taking advantage of Warren’s control issues.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Will Warren was on point in his last game started and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Aaron Judge’s 27.9% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) is in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The New York Yankees have been the luckiest offense in MLB since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #28 HR venue among all stadiums today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In the past 7 days, Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal mark of 89 mph to 85.1 mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen projects as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games at home (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 80 of their last 143 games (+15.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI)