Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays
(-110/-110)-120
On May 26, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Minnesota Twins at George M. Steinbrenner Field. This matchup marks the first game of their series, and both teams come in following starkly different recent performances. The Rays are fresh off a dominant 13-0 shutout victory, while the Twins struggled in a narrow 2-1 loss.
With a record of 29-23, Minnesota has been performing well overall, but they face a challenge against a Tampa Bay team that stands at just 26-26. Despite the Rays’ average standing, they have shown signs of life recently, which could bode well for them in this contest.
The Rays are projected to start Zack Littell, who has been inconsistent this season. His 3-5 record and 4.25 ERA reveal some struggles, particularly with a 5.42 FIP, indicating an inflated ERA driven by luck rather than pure performance. Littell projects to throw around 5.6 innings while allowing approximately 3.0 earned runs, but he also has alarming projections for hits and walks, which could be troubling against a disciplined Twins offense that ranks as the 4th lowest in walks this year.
On the other side, Chris Paddack takes the mound for Minnesota. With a solid 3.98 ERA, he has been effective but is still deemed below-average according to Power Rankings. His projections suggest he will pitch about 5.2 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs with a higher propensity for walks than Littell.
Despite the Rays’ offensive struggles, ranking 24th overall, their ability to create mayhem on the basepaths, being 2nd in stolen bases, can help exploit any gaps left by Paddack. Meanwhile, with the Twins ranking just 19th in team offense, this matchup could favor the pitching duel more than the offensive showdown. Bettors should keep an eye on the projected outcome, as the Rays’ current moneyline at -125 suggests a close contest with Tampa Bay likely to put its best foot forward following their recent success.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Chris Paddack – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Chris Paddack (34% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 GB hitters in Tampa Bay’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- DaShawn Keirsey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Extreme groundball batters like DaShawn Keirsey Jr. are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Zack Littell.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Minnesota’s 11.5° launch angle (an advanced metric to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in MLB this year: #25 overall.Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Zack Littell – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Zack Littell will have the handedness advantage against 6 opposing batters in this matchup.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Christopher Morel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Christopher Morel has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Paddack doesn’t generate many whiffs (18th percentile K%) — great news for Morel.Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
- The 7% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #28 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+9.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+380/-580)Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+15.30 Units / 191% ROI)