Kansas City Royals
Baltimore Orioles
(+100/-120)-110
On May 3, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, marking the second game of their series. Both teams find themselves in the middle of a rough stretch; the Orioles are currently 13-18 and struggling to find consistent performance, while the Royals, sitting at 17-16, have shown signs of an above-average season.
In their last outing, the Orioles fell short against the Royals, which adds pressure to today’s matchup. The focus will likely be on the starting pitchers, as Tomoyuki Sugano and Kris Bubic take the mound. Sugano, despite his solid ERA of 3.00, is ranked as the 289th best starting pitcher, signaling he may be a liability against an offense that has shown some resilience. His projections suggest he’ll pitch around 5.3 innings but could allow 3.3 earned runs, indicating a tough road ahead.
On the other side, Bubic shines as a left-handed pitcher with a 2.25 ERA and ranks as the 63rd best starting pitcher. He’s projected to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing only 2.8 earned runs, giving Kansas City an edge. Bubic’s ability to strike out 5.1 batters this season could be pivotal against the Orioles, who rank as the 21st best offense in MLB.
Though both teams struggle in various aspects—particularly in power, with the Royals ranking 30th in home runs—today’s game has an average total set at 8.5 runs. The projections see the Orioles as having a slight edge, but the realities of their current form and the quality of Bubic could tip the scales in favor of Kansas City.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Kris Bubic – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-180/+140)Kris Bubic’s 2396-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 80th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)Maikel Garcia is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Kansas City Royals have been the unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the seasonExplain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Baltimore Orioles – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Tomoyuki Sugano is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Oriole Park at Camden Yards — the #8 HR venue in the league — in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Gunnar Henderson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 95.7-mph average to last year’s 92.7-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Baltimore’s 90.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the majors: #3 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games (+13.30 Units / 51% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)Heston Kjerstad has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+15.50 Units / 172% ROI)