Check Out the Match Preview: Rockies vs Braves Game Forecast and Analysis – 9/04/2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves gear up to face the Colorado Rockies on September 4, 2024, at Truist Park, the stakes are significant for the Braves, who are in the midst of an above-average season with a record of 75-63. Meanwhile, the Rockies are struggling, sitting at 51-88, marking a notably disappointing year. After squaring off in an intense matchup yesterday, where the Braves showcased their strength, the teams now meet for the second game of the series.

The Braves are projected to start right-hander Charlie Morton, who brings a solid yet average season performance with a 7-7 record and a 4.26 ERA. While Morton ranks as the 105th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, the projections suggest he could dominate the Rockies’ lineup. The Rockies will counter with right-hander Bradley Blalock, who has had an uphill battle this year, currently owning a 1-1 record with a subpar 4.98 ERA. His 5.51 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate, raising questions about his ability to perform against a potent Braves offense.

The Braves rank 10th in home runs this season, a strength they will likely leverage against a Rockies pitching staff that has struggled throughout the year. Furthermore, despite ranking 13th in batting overall, the Braves’ offensive lineup is capable of overwhelming opponents, especially with Matt Olson heating up, recently contributing significantly to the team’s scoring efforts.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Braves heavily favored with a moneyline of -280, bettors may find it hard to look past this favorable matchup. The projections suggest the Braves will post a high team total of 5.28 runs, while the Rockies are seen struggling to reach their implied total of 3.22 runs, making this matchup one to keep an eye on for sports bettors.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+230)
  The Colorado Rockies infield defense profiles as the strongest among all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Charlie Blackmon’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 86.4-mph average last season has dropped off to 84.2-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Brendan Rodgers hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Charlie Morton – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-185/+145)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Charlie Morton has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 5.5 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Michael Harris II is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Colorado (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Today’s version of the Braves projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .317 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .331 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 82 of their last 138 games (+25.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+105/-135)
  Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)