Check Out the Marlins vs Giants Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 9/1/2024

Miami Marlins

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San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Giants sit at 68-69, showing signs of mediocrity, while the Marlins languish at 50-86, marking a particularly rough year. Notably, the Giants lost to the Marlins just a day prior, falling 4-3 in a tightly contested matchup.

Logan Webb, the Giants’ ace, is projected to take the mound. Webb, currently ranked as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, boasts an impressive 3.24 ERA this season. Despite a recent outing where he allowed four earned runs over five innings, his overall performance has been solid, with projections indicating he’ll pitch approximately 6.6 innings while allowing just 1.8 earned runs today. His ability to generate ground balls (57% GB%) may play a significant role against a Marlins lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 2nd worst in the league with only 85 home runs this season.

On the other side, the Marlins will hand the ball to Darren McCaughan, who has faced challenges this year, featured as one of the league’s least effective pitchers. With an ERA of 8.62, McCaughan is projected to pitch five innings and allow around 3.0 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Giants offense that ranks 21st overall but is patient at the plate.

The projections favor the Giants significantly, suggesting they could score around 4.82 runs today against a Marlins team that is expected to struggle, tallying just 2.77 runs on average. As the Giants look to rebound from yesterday’s loss, they are positioned as heavy favorites with a moneyline of -275, reflecting confidence in their potential to secure a win in this pivotal matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-225/+170)
  Typically, batters like Derek Hill who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Logan Webb.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Given that groundball hitters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Logan Webb (56.6% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected lineup.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-240/+180)
  Mike Yastrzemski has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.15 Units / 62% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+145/-190)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 45 games (+17.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 46 games (+11.10 Units / 20% ROI)