Pittsburgh Pirates
St. Louis Cardinals
(-115/-105)+115
The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 16, 2024, in the first game of a crucial series for both teams, who are looking to finish the season strong. The Cardinals currently sit with a record of 74-75, while the Pirates are at 71-78, indicating a battle between two teams struggling to find consistency. The Cardinals are coming off a narrow loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, falling 3-2, while the Pirates managed a close victory against the Kansas City Royals, winning 4-3.
Andre Pallante, projected to start for St. Louis, has had an average season, ranking 100th among MLB starting pitchers. His recent performance has been less than stellar, as he allowed three earned runs in his last outing on September 10. However, he faces a favorable matchup against a Pirates offense that ranks 27th in the league this season, lacking significant power with only 142 home runs.
On the other hand, Paul Skenes, the Pirates’ ace, is having an exceptional year, boasting a 2.10 ERA and a 10-2 record. While he is projected to allow only 1.8 earned runs, he faces a Cardinals lineup that is ranked 19th overall but has shown glimpses of improvement. Brendan Donovan has been particularly productive over the last week, recording a .350 batting average.
Despite the Cardinals’ underdog status with a moneyline of +115, projections suggest they may have a better chance than the odds imply. With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, it could be a tight contest where every run counts, making it an intriguing matchup for bettors.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Given that groundball hitters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Paul Skenes (47.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected offense.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)Isiah Kiner-Falefa has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Joey Bart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Joey Bart pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Andre Pallante – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Andre Pallante has gone to his fastball a lot this year, though: 69.6% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
- Michael Siani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)Michael Siani’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 84.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 80.3-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future gamesExplain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 73 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 away games (+8.30 Units / 44% ROI)