Check Out the Cardinals vs Brewers Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 6/14/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Milwaukee Brewers

On June 14, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field in a pivotal National League Central matchup. The Brewers, currently holding a record of 38-33, have been showcasing an above-average season thus far. Conversely, the Cardinals sit slightly behind at 36-34, having turned in an average performance. The Brewers look to build momentum after winning yesterday’s contest against the Cardinals, and with both teams vying for a stronger position in the division, this matchup carries significant weight.

Milwaukee is set to send Jose Quintana to the mound, who boasts a solid 4-1 record this season and an impressive ERA of 2.66. However, advanced metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP of 4.51 indicates potential regression. Quintana’s projected performance today is somewhat concerning, as he is expected to allow an average of 5.5 hits and 1.8 walks, which could set the stage for trouble against an offense that ranks 13th in MLB.

Andre Pallante, on the other hand, will take the hill for St. Louis. With a 4-3 record and a 4.75 ERA, Pallante has been considered an average pitcher this season. His xFIP of 3.70 suggests that he might see improvement moving forward. He is projected to allow 5.3 hits and 2.2 walks today, putting him in a similar situation as Quintana.

Offensively, the Brewers are struggling, currently ranking as the 25th best offense in MLB. Their low power numbers, particularly in home runs (24th), contrast sharply with their 2nd rank in stolen bases, highlighting a reliance on speed rather than power. The Cardinals, while also lacking in home runs (23rd), excel in batting average, ranking 5th overall. Given the Brewers’ offensive challenges and the projections for both starting pitchers, this game could hinge on who capitalizes on the other’s weaknesses. The Game Total is sitting at an average 8.0 runs, indicating expectations for a closely contested game. Betting markets have the Brewers favored at -125, implying a slight edge, but both teams are expected to fight hard for the win.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Because groundball pitchers have a sizeable edge over groundball bats, Andre Pallante and his 59.8% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in this matchup going up against 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Ivan Herrera has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 100.7-mph average to last year’s 91.5-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals’ bullpen projects as the 9th-worst among all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Jose Quintana has gone to his sinker 17.2% more often this season (47.6%) than he did last season (30.4%).
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Typically, bats like Christian Yelich who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Andre Pallante.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 58 games (+13.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+7.80 Units / 20% ROI)