Check Out the Braves vs Pirates Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 5/9/2025

Atlanta Braves

@

Pittsburgh Pirates

On May 9, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Atlanta Braves at PNC Park for the first game of their series. Both teams find themselves underwhelming in the standings, with the Pirates sitting at 12-26 and the Braves at 18-19. Despite the Braves having an average season, they will be favored in this matchup, reflecting their higher projected win probability against a struggling Pirates squad.

The Pirates’ pitching will be led by Bailey Falter, who has struggled this year with a 1-3 record and a 5.06 ERA. He has been one of the lower-ranked pitchers in Major League Baseball, currently sitting at #227 out of approximately 350. Falter projects to pitch around 5.2 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs. However, his xFIP of 4.37 suggests he may be due for some improvement despite his current form.

On the other side, Bryce Elder will take the mound for the Braves. With a 2-1 record and a similar ERA of 5.06, Elder is also viewed as a below-average pitcher. He projects to pitch around 5.5 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which is slightly better than Falter’s projections. Elder’s high groundball rate (53% this year) may play to his advantage against the Pirates, who rank 28th in MLB for home runs this season.

While the Pirates’ offense ranks 28th overall and 27th in batting average, they do hold a solid ranking in stolen bases at 8th. However, their lack of power could be a significant disadvantage against a pitcher like Elder. The Braves, with a middle-of-the-road offense ranked 16th, are likely to capitalize on the Pirates’ pitching struggles. With a game total set at an average of 8.5 runs, bettors might find value in the Braves’ higher implied team total of 4.58 runs, given the matchup dynamics.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Bailey Falter.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves batters collectively rank among the best in the majors this year (7th-) as far as their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Bailey Falter is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Joey Bart has a ton of pop (77th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (27.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Bryce Elder doesn’t generate many whiffs (20th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 83rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+6.35 Units / 22% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+690/-1400)
  Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+6.30 Units / 90% ROI)