Check Out the Blue Jays vs Pirates Best Bets and Expert Picks – Monday August 18, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Pittsburgh Pirates

On August 18, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Toronto Blue Jays at PNC Park for the first game of their interleague series. The Pirates are currently struggling with a record of 52-73, while the Blue Jays sit comfortably at 73-52, showcasing their strong performance this season. The Pirates have been particularly weak offensively, ranking 30th in MLB in team batting average and home runs, which could be problematic against a solid Blue Jays pitching staff.

Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, projected as the starter, has had an impressive season, ranking 2nd best among all pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats. With a stellar ERA of 2.13, Skenes is an elite talent, but there are concerns that his underlying metrics suggest he may not maintain this level of performance. He’s projected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs on average, which is promising. However, he faces a Blue Jays offense that has proven to be the best in MLB, characterized by a 1st ranking in team batting average.

In contrast, Toronto’s Kevin Gausman has had a solid but unspectacular year, sporting an ERA of 3.79 and ranking as an average pitcher in the advanced stats. Gausman is also projected to allow around 2.7 earned runs while pitching a similar number of innings.

Given the projected matchup and the Pirates’ struggles against strong pitching, this game presents a potential opportunity for the Blue Jays to capitalize. The current Game Total stands at a low 7.0 runs, indicating that the sportsbooks expect a tightly contested game, with both teams projected for low implied team totals of 3.54 runs for the Pirates and 3.46 runs for the Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Kevin Gausman has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Tyler Heineman’s true offensive ability to be a .275, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .119 disparity between that mark and his actual .394 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Paul Skenes has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches 19.8% more often this season (52.2%) than he did last season (32.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Tommy Pham is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 111 games (+21.70 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 58 of their last 98 games (+19.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)