Brewers vs White Sox Picks and Odds – April 29, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Milwaukee Brewers for the first game of their interleague series on April 29, 2025. The White Sox currently sit at the bottom of the standings with a dismal record of 7-21 this season, while the Brewers are hovering around .500 at 14-15. In their last outings, the White Sox lost a close game against the Kansas City Royals, 3-2, while the Brewers enjoyed a decisive victory over the San Francisco Giants, winning 7-1.

On the mound for the White Sox will be Bryse Wilson, who has struggled this season, posting an average ERA of 4.30. Wilson’s projections indicate he will likely pitch around 4.4 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs, which is far from ideal. He has also been fortunate this season, as his 5.02 xFIP suggests he could be in for rough outings ahead.

Freddy Peralta, projected to start for the Brewers, has been performing well, ranking as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His ERA of 2.43 is impressive, and he projects to pitch around 5.9 innings while allowing just 2.2 earned runs. This matchup could heavily favor Peralta, especially given the White Sox’s struggles on offense, where they rank 29th in the league.

The White Sox’s batting average is the worst in MLB, and they have managed only 22 home runs this season, ranking 4th least overall. In contrast, the Brewers’ offense has been more productive, ranking 16th in the league. With the game total set at 8.0 runs, the Brewers are favored to come out on top, making them an appealing option for bettors looking to capitalize on this favorable matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Freddy Peralta’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (60 compared to 53.8% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Brice Turang is projected to hit 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 6% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers grades them out as the #29 team in the league this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+180)
  Out of all starters, Bryse Wilson’s fastball spin rate of 2106.1 rpm ranks in the 17th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  There has been a decrease in Luis Robert Jr.’s average exit velocity this year, from 90 mph last year to 85.1 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Lenyn Sosa has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-240)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 29 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
• Brooks Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Brooks Baldwin has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 26% ROI)