Brewers vs Cubs Picks and Betting Trends – 8/21/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs will host the Milwaukee Brewers in a critical National League Central matchup on August 21, 2025. With the Cubs sitting at 73-54 and the Brewers at 79-48, this series is significant as both teams look to bolster their playoff positions. The Cubs are coming off a narrow 4-3 victory over the Brewers in their last encounter, which could inject some momentum into their lineup.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Shota Imanaga, a left-handed pitcher who boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 8-5 and a commendable ERA of 3.06 this season. However, his 4.46 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate, indicating potential for regression. Imanaga’s ability to limit walks (4.7 BB%) could serve him well against a Brewers offense that tends to draw a lot of walks, making this a compelling matchup.

Quinn Priester, a right-handed pitcher for the Brewers, carries a strong 11-2 record and a 3.48 ERA. Despite being projected as an average pitcher, Priester’s recent outings have been solid. However, like Imanaga, his 4.33 FIP indicates he might not be as reliable as his ERA suggests.

The Cubs’ offense has been the 7th best in MLB, with impressive rankings in home runs (7th) and a good batting average (12th). Meanwhile, the Brewers offense ranks 9th overall but has excelled in batting average (2nd) and stolen bases (2nd). Despite the Brewers having the better record, the Cubs’ offensive depth and the edge in starting pitching could make all the difference here.

With a low Game Total of 6.5 runs suggesting a tightly contested match, the Cubs find themselves as betting favorites at -140, which mirrors their strong performance and home-field advantage. The projections hint that while the odds may appear tight, the Cubs have a solid opportunity to come out on top once again.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Quinn Priester (53.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today’s game with 2 GB hitters in Chicago’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Shota Imanaga’s slider usage has increased by 6.4% from last year to this one (7.7% to 14.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Chicago Cubs batters as a unit place 4th- in the game for power this year when using their 10.1% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 42 games at home (+15.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 78 of their last 122 games (+30.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+16.35 Units / 36% ROI)