Brewers vs Cardinals Value Bets and Betting Line – 9/20/2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 20, 2025, fans are treated to a crucial National League Central matchup. The Cardinals, sitting at 75-79, have had an average season, while the Brewers are enjoying a strong campaign at 94-60. In their last encounter, the Brewers secured a convincing victory against St. Louis, further solidifying their position in the playoff race.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for St. Louis, and while he has shown resilience this season with a Win/Loss record of 8-10 and an ERA of 4.80, he currently ranks as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. This places him among the lower tier of pitchers, which could be problematic against a potent Brewers offense that ranks 8th overall.

Chad Patrick, the likely starter for Milwaukee, has had a challenging season with a 3-8 record and a 3.64 ERA, but he is still expected to provide a solid performance. His high-flyball tendencies could work in his favor against a Cardinals lineup that has struggled to hit home runs, ranking 28th in MLB. The projections indicate that he will pitch about 4.6 innings today, which is below average, but the Cardinals’ low strikeout rate might not capitalize on his weaknesses.

With an average implied team total of 3.92 runs for the Cardinals, their offense needs to rise to the occasion if they hope to pull off an upset against the favored Brewers, who have a high implied total of 4.58 runs. As a result, this game presents an intriguing dynamic, especially with the Cardinals’ offensive struggles against a Brewers team that boasts both power and finesse at the plate.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Chad Patrick – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Chad Patrick’s 87.2-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 2nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.9) may lead us to conclude that Christian Yelich has been lucky this year with his 28.6 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Milwaukee Brewers – 2H Moneyline
  The Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 5th-worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Compared to the average starter, Miles Mikolas has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -9.3 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Thomas Saggese – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Thomas Saggese is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 7th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 68 games (+8.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 115 games (+28.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)