Braves vs Rays Picks and Betting Odds – 4/11/2025

Atlanta Braves

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Tampa Bay Rays

On April 11, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Atlanta Braves at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. Both teams have struggled at the start of the season, with the Rays sitting at 5-7 and the Braves at 3-9. In their last outings, the Rays suffered a disheartening 11-1 defeat, while the Braves managed a 4-2 victory, providing a slight boost to their morale.

Taj Bradley is projected to take the mound for the Rays, aiming to improve upon his current 1-0 record and 4.91 ERA. Despite the ERA being below average, his 3.15 xFIP indicates he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. He’s shown promise with an average projection of 6.0 strikeouts today, which could be crucial against a Braves lineup that ranks 21st in batting average and has struggled to find consistency.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Bryce Elder, who has had a rough start this season, sporting a 6.75 ERA and a low strikeout rate of 17.7%. His tendency to allow fly balls could play into the Rays’ hands, as they have hit only 8 home runs this season, ranking 26th in that category.

Looking at the offensive stats, the projections suggest the Rays may have a slight edge with their 14th overall ranking, especially as they boast a strong batting average of .259. In contrast, the Braves’ offense continues to lag, ranking 21st. With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs, it promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rays are currently favored with a moneyline of -130, suggesting a close contest ahead.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Because groundball pitchers hold a sizeable edge over groundball batters, Bryce Elder and his 50% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong position in this matchup facing 3 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme groundball bats like Orlando Arcia tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Taj Bradley.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be wise to expect better numbers for the Atlanta Braves offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Taj Bradley – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Taj Bradley’s cutter percentage has spiked by 5% from last season to this one (22.5% to 27.5%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Junior Caminero has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 11.9% rate last season has dropped to 3.4% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay’s 87.9-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the worst in MLB: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 94 of their last 161 games (+20.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 157 games (+12.40 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-150)
  Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+8.20 Units / 55% ROI)