Boxscore for Twins vs Brewers – 5/17/25

Minnesota Twins

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on May 17, 2025, at American Family Field, both teams are looking to build momentum. The Brewers are currently struggling with a record of 21-24, placing them below .500, while the Twins sit at 25-20 with a solid standing in the league. In their last game, the Twins were victorious, further solidifying their position as they aim for a postseason spot.

On the mound, the Brewers will start Tobias Myers, who has a less-than-stellar Power Ranking at #231 among starting pitchers. Although Myers has an ERA of 3.86, his xFIP of 5.54 suggests that he may have been lucky to achieve that mark. With a high walk rate of 13.3%, he faces a Twins offense that is known for being patient, ranking as the 6th least in walks. This matchup may give Myers an edge if the Twins cannot capitalize on his control issues.

Countering for the Twins is Pablo Lopez, who has been excellent with a 2.77 ERA and a Power Ranking of #26. Lopez projects to pitch 5.8 innings today, allowing approximately 2.3 earned runs. His strong performance this season, coupled with the Brewers’ 24th-ranked offense, could give the Twins an advantage in this interleague matchup.

The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a tight contest. Betting markets have both teams at -110 on the moneyline, reflecting a belief that this game will be closely contested. Given the current dynamics, the projections favor a stronger performance from the Twins, making them a team to watch as they look to extend their winning streak.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Considering the 0.45 disparity between Pablo Lopez’s 9.92 K/9 and his 9.48 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and figures to see negative regression in the future.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• DaShawn Keirsey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Extreme flyball bats like DaShawn Keirsey Jr. generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tobias Myers.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kody Clemens pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Tobias Myers’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (91.8 mph) below where it was last year (93 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Jackson Chourio is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.9% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.