Boxscore for Phillies vs Mets - 9/19/26 - WriteNow™ by EV Analytics

+105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-125

Andrew Painter – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
Andrew Painter has a mean projection of 1.9 walks in today’s matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
Brandon Marsh is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
Bryson Stott hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Christian Scott – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Christian Scott in this game.
Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Juan Soto has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.5-mph to 97.3-mph over the last week.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
New York Mets – Moneyline (-125)
The New York Mets projected batting order grades out as the 4th-best on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 away games (+5.60 Units / 22% ROI)
Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+170/-225)
Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.35 Units / 30% ROI)

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