Boxscore for D-Backs vs Padres - 9/25/26 - WriteNow™ by EV Analytics

+115O/U: 7.5
(-105/-115)-135

Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under Pitching Outs
Brandon Pfaadt has averaged 17.8 outs per game per started this year, ranking in the 94th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Jesús Sánchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (65% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Tim Tawa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Tim Tawa hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
Casey Mize has used his slider 12.3% more often this year (27.6%) than he did last year (15.3%).
Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Jake Cronenworth may have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
It may be sensible to expect worse numbers for the San Diego Padres offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-135)
The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 17 games (+13.45 Units / 49% ROI)
Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 away games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.00 Units / 55% ROI)

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