Boxscore for Athletics vs Pirates – 9/21/25

Athletics

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on September 21, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with disappointing seasons. The Pirates sit at 66-89, while the Athletics are slightly better at 73-82. Despite the lack of playoff contention, this Interleague series remains significant for both squads as they look to finish their seasons on a high note.

In their previous game, the Athletics fell to the Pirates, a tough loss that highlighted the struggles of their bullpen, which ranks dead last in MLB according to advanced metrics. The Pirates, on the other hand, have shown some resilience, and their offense, while ranked 30th in overall talent, has had brief moments of effectiveness, particularly in the power department.

On the mound, Pittsburgh is projected to send out Michael Burrows, who has had an average season with a 2-4 record and a 4.10 ERA. Despite being ranked the 102nd best starting pitcher in MLB, Burrows has shown flashes of competence, although his projection suggests he may struggle with 4.4 hits and 1.5 walks allowed today, which is concerning. Conversely, Mitch Spence, slated to start for Oakland, has been one of the worst pitchers in the league, boasting a 4.48 ERA and a concerning 5.44 xERA. His projections are equally dire, with a forecast of 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks allowed.

With the Pirates’ offense ranking 30th, they will face a tough challenge against Spence, whose struggles could potentially open the door for a surprising performance. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a matchup that could lean toward the under. Given the current odds, both teams have an average implied team total of 4.25 runs, suggesting a tight contest ahead. The Pirates may have the edge if they can exploit Spence’s weaknesses, especially in front of their home crowd at PNC Park.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (+100)
  The Athletics outfield defense projects as the worst out of every team on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Nick Kurtz has been lucky this year, notching a .419 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .351 — a .068 deviation.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Athletics’ bullpen profiles as the worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Michael Burrows – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Mike Burrows has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 15.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Jared Triolo is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 11th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 78 of their last 126 games (+25.30 Units / 17% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+100)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 94 games (+14.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• Willie MacIver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Willie MacIver has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+6.85 Units / 76% ROI)