Read the Cardinals vs Phillies Prediction and Game Breakdown - August 23rd, 2026

+185O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-220

Kyle Leahy – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Kyle Leahy’s 2176-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a notable 198-rpm decline from last season’s 2374-rpm rate.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
Alec Burleson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 92.1-mph EV.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
JJ Wetherholt has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 11th-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-165)
Compared to the average pitcher, Cristopher Sanchez has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.6 adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-220)
The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense grades out as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 35 games at home (+6.90 Units / 18% ROI)
St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+110)
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 away games (+10.85 Units / 39% ROI)
Cristopher Sanchez – Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-145/+110)
Cristopher Sanchez has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+8.20 Units / 36% ROI)

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