Toronto Blue Jays
Boston Red Sox
(+100/-120)-220
On April 8, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park for the second game of their series. The Red Sox currently hold a record of 6-5, while the Blue Jays match them at 6-5 as well. Both teams have been performing above average this season, making this matchup interesting as they vie for early-season positioning in the American League East. In their previous game, the Red Sox fell to the Blue Jays by a score of 6-2, reflecting a shift in momentum as Toronto aims to capitalize on that victory.
Starting for the Red Sox is Garrett Crochet, projected as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X. His impressive 1.38 ERA this season showcases his ability to dominate on the mound, despite a higher expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 3.82. In his last outing on April 2, Crochet pitched a remarkable complete game shutout, striking out 8 batters and allowing just 4 hits. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will counter with Easton Lucas, who has started just 1 game this season and holds a perfect 0.00 ERA but is projected to struggle with a concerning 4.31 xFIP.
Offensively, the Red Sox are ranked 6th in MLB, notably excelling with a .267 batting average, while the Blue Jays find themselves in the middle of the pack at 11th. The Red Sox’s high walk rate and Easton Lucas’s struggles with control could set the stage for a challenging outing for the Blue Jays’ pitcher.
With a high implied team total of 4.72 runs, the Red Sox are favored for this matchup, suggesting they are well-positioned to bounce back after their recent loss. As the teams clash, Crochet’s elite pitching could be the key to securing a much-needed victory for Boston.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+190)Easton Lucas was on point in his last outing and conceded 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Alan Roden – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Alan Roden has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 103.8-mph average in the past week to his seasonal EV of 98.8-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Considering that groundball batters hold a significant advantage over flyball pitchers, Garrett Crochet and his 43.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult spot in this matchup squaring off against 0 opposing GB hitters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Trevor Story – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Typically, batters like Trevor Story who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Easton Lucas.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez, Carlos Narvaez).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+125/-160)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ernie Clement – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)Ernie Clement has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 46% ROI)