Blue Jays vs Mariners Injury Report – Thursday, October 16, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays infield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Addison Barger is penciled in 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays projected lineup ranks as the 2nd-worst of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Luis Castillo – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Luis Castillo has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  This season, Cal Raleigh has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97 mph compared to last year’s 94.9 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 4th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 165 games (+15.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 114 games (+20.15 Units / 13% ROI)