Betting Trends for Rays vs Guardians Game – 9/13/24

Tampa Bay Rays

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 13, 2024, they find themselves in a strong position in the standings, holding an 84-63 record. The Guardians are enjoying a solid season, while the Rays, at 72-75, are having a relatively average year. This matchup is crucial for the Guardians as they aim to maintain their momentum in the playoff race.

In their last game, the Guardians showcased their pitching prowess, with Tanner Bibee projected to take the mound. Bibee, currently ranked as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has a Win/Loss record of 11-7 and an impressive ERA of 3.56. He has been effective this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 earned runs per game. His high strikeout rate (26.3 K%) could pose a significant challenge for the Rays, who rank 5th in the league for strikeouts.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Zack Littell, who has struggled this season, holding a 6-9 record and a 3.89 ERA. His xERA of 4.49 suggests he has been fortunate this year, and he may face difficulties against a Guardians offense that, while averaging, has the potential to capitalize on his weaknesses. The Guardians rank 17th in overall offense and 22nd in batting average, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking 5th in the league.

With the Guardians being a significant betting favorite with a moneyline of -170, the projections indicate an average team total of 4.21 runs for them, while the Rays are projected to struggle with a low total of 3.29 runs. This matchup favors the Guardians, especially given Bibee’s high strikeout ability against a strikeout-prone Rays lineup.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Zack Littell – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Zack Littell will surrender an average of 1.2 singles in this matchup.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brandon Lowe is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Cleveland (#3-worst of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Christopher Morel).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tanner Bibee in the 88th percentile when estimating his strikeout ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Daniel Schneemann – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Daniel Schneemann is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-180)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 144 games (+8.07 Units / 4% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 77 of their last 132 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-125/-105)
  Yandy Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)