Betting Trends for D-Backs vs Guardians Game – 8/2/26

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Cleveland Guardians

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Generating 17.3 outs per outing this year on average, Merrill Kelly ranks in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Adrian Del Castillo has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under Total Bases
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Gavin Williams’s slider usage has spiked by 8.1% from last season to this one (19.7% to 27.8%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Steven Kwan may have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Guardians’s expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).